Orioles vs Rockies Game Highlights – Saturday, August 31, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on August 31, 2024, both teams find themselves in starkly different situations. The Rockies sit at a disappointing 50-86 this season, while the Orioles are riding high with a record of 78-58, showcasing their strength in this interleague matchup. This game marks the second in a series where the Orioles triumphed 5-3 in their previous encounter, leaving the Rockies looking to rebound after a tough outing.

On the mound, Ryan Feltner is projected to start for the Rockies. Despite a rough season with a 1-10 record and a subpar 4.95 ERA, Feltner’s 4.16 xFIP suggests he might be due for a turnaround. In his last start on August 26, he pitched five innings, allowing just two earned runs, hinting at potential for improvement. However, he still projects to struggle against a potent Orioles lineup that ranks 5th in the league in offensive performance.

Dean Kremer, taking the mound for the Orioles, has had an average season with a 4.31 ERA and a 6-9 record. His last outing saw him give up three earned runs over six innings, which is consistent with his projections of allowing 3.1 earned runs today. While his performance has been adequate, the projections indicate he may also face challenges against a Rockies offense that, despite their struggles, ranks 12th in team batting average and 10th in home runs.

Interestingly, while the Orioles are favored with a current moneyline of -160, projections suggest that the Rockies have a win probability closer to 46%, indicating potential value in betting on the underdog. With the Game Total set at a high 11.0 runs, fans can expect an exciting matchup as both teams aim to capitalize on their strengths while addressing their weaknesses.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dean Kremer to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (11th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
  Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Baltimore Orioles are expected to score the most runs (6.65 on average) of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Feltner in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.4-mph mark last season has dropped to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .314 overall projected rate, the .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 52 games at home (+7.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line -1.5 (-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 127 games (+20.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)