Orioles vs Brewers Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday May 21, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Baltimore Orioles at American Family Field on May 21, 2025, in a pivotal Interleague matchup. This marks the third game of the series, where the Brewers look to build on their recent 5-2 victory over the Orioles on May 20. While the Brewers are hovering around .500 with a 24-25 record, the Orioles find themselves struggling significantly at 15-32, making this a crucial contest for both teams.

Chad Patrick is projected to start for Milwaukee, bringing a solid 3.35 ERA this season, which is backed by an average projection of 5.0 innings pitched. However, his 4.62 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate in his performance thus far. Patrick’s recent outing saw him allow 3 earned runs over 6 innings, suggesting consistency but not dominance. Comparatively, Tomoyuki Sugano will take the mound for Baltimore, sporting an impressive 3.08 ERA despite a similar outlook with his xFIP of 4.44. In his last start, he allowed 4 earned runs, which raises concerns about his effectiveness.

Both offenses have struggled, with the Brewers ranking 25th in the league in batting average and 27th in home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd, which could present challenges for Sugano, who has issues with walks and hits allowed. The Orioles hold a slightly better position at 22nd in offensive ranking but are also poor in batting average (24th) despite a strong 10th in home runs.

With the Brewers sitting at -120 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.35 runs, they may be seen as slight favorites, making this matchup one to watch for fans and bettors alike.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Because groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Tomoyuki Sugano (43% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Typically, batters like Cedric Mullins who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Chad Patrick.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Baltimore Orioles offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Chad Patrick in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jake Bauers has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano has a pitch-to-contact profile (6th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Milwaukee Brewers batters as a group place 30th- in the league for power this year when judging by their 6.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 38 games (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 27% ROI)