Official Lineup for Tigers vs Giants – 8/09/2024

Detroit Tigers

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves with average records, but the Giants are on a slight upswing following their recent 9-5 victory over the Washington Nationals yesterday. Meanwhile, the Tigers are struggling, having lost their last game against the Seattle Mariners, 4-3.

In this interleague matchup, the Giants will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at Oracle Park, starting Robbie Ray, who ranks as the 65th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Ray has shown flashes of brilliance this season, with a solid Win/Loss record of 2-1 and an average projection of allowing only 2.1 earned runs per game. His recent performance, where he struck out 9 batters in 5 innings while allowing just 3 hits and 1 walk, suggests he is trending upward, despite an average ERA of 4.40.

On the other hand, the Tigers will send Beau Brieske to the mound. Brieske’s projections indicate he’s likely to struggle, with a poor average of just 1.2 innings pitched and allowing an average of 0.6 earned runs. His last outing was particularly concerning, as he managed only 1 inning while surrendering 3 earned runs and 5 hits.

While the Giants rank 1st in MLB for their bullpen, the Tigers find themselves in the middle of the pack at 18th. This disparity could be significant as the game progresses, especially if the Giants’ offense, ranked 13th overall, can capitalize on Brieske’s struggles early.

The projections favor the Giants, with a high implied team total of 4.32 runs against the Tigers’ low implied total of 3.18 runs. With the Giants looking to build on their recent success and the Tigers searching for answers, this matchup could tilt heavily in favor of the home team.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Justyn-Henry Malloy has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.8-mph dropping to 84-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Beau Brieske – Over/Under Strikeouts
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher today) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Over his last 3 starts, Robbie Ray has put up a staggering 21 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who has been strong in his recent outings may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In notching a .372 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Tyler Fitzgerald is positioned in the 96th percentile for offensive skills.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-135)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+13.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Patrick Bailey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.25 Units / 52% ROI)