Official Lineup for Nationals vs Mets – 6/11/2025

Washington Nationals

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals on June 11, 2025, the stakes are clear: the Mets are looking to extend their strong season, currently boasting a 43-24 record, while the Nationals struggle at 30-36. The Mets have been on a roll and are heavily favored in this matchup, fresh off a riveting game where David Peterson pitched a complete game shutout, showcasing his prowess on the mound.

David Peterson is projected to start for the Mets, and his 2.80 ERA indicates an excellent performance thus far this season. Although his 3.46 xFIP suggests that he may have benefited from some fortune, his ability to pitch deep into games—averaging 6.0 innings—demonstrates his reliability. Additionally, he projects to allow just 2.1 earned runs, which tops the Nationals’ lineup facing his left-handed pitching.

On the other side, Jake Irvin is slated to take the mound for Washington. While he holds a decent 4.02 ERA, his 4.55 xFIP illustrates some underlying struggles, suggesting a potential regression. Irvin’s average strikeout rate of 3.6 batters per game might not be enough to stifle a potent Mets offense that ranks 5th in the league. The Mets’ lineup is not only hitting well but has also been explosive, with their best hitter recording a .423 batting average and 5 home runs over the past week.

The projections indicate a favorable scenario for the Mets, who are not only expected to outscore the Nationals—projected at 5.18 runs versus Washington’s 3.32—but also capitalize on Irvin’s vulnerabilities. With the Mets entering the game as significant favorites with a moneyline of -255, bettors might find value in backing New York to continue their winning ways against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 9.4% more often this year (51.1%) than he did last season (41.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Washington Nationals offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  David Peterson’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this year (90.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball batters like Brett Baty tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jake Irvin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 66 games (+11.39 Units / 13% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+230)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 away games (+7.95 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)