Official Lineup for Marlins vs Mariners – 4/26/2025

Miami Marlins

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Miami Marlins on April 26, 2025, they enter the matchup with a solid 14-12 record this season, reflecting an above-average performance. The Mariners are coming off a strong showing in the previous game, where they secured a convincing victory. Meanwhile, the Marlins sit at 12-13, struggling to find their footing with a below-average season thus far.

In this interleague contest at T-Mobile Park, the Mariners will send Luis Castillo to the mound. Castillo has been a reliable presence, with a 2-2 record and a 4.44 ERA this season, ranking him as the 78th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He projects to pitch an average of 6.3 innings, allowing just 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters, which bodes well against a Marlins offense that ranks 6th least in walks.

On the other side, Connor Gillispie is expected to start for the Marlins. Unfortunately for Miami, Gillispie has struggled this season, with a 0-2 record and a troubling 6.75 ERA. Although he has a 4.43 xFIP that suggests he may improve, his projections indicate he will only pitch 4.9 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 4.6 batters. This matchup favors the Mariners, especially considering their offense ranks 9th overall in MLB and is capable of capitalizing on Gillispie’s high flyball rate.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Mariners favored with a moneyline of -220, expect a solid performance from Seattle, especially given their advantage in both starting pitching and offensive power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Connor Gillispie – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Connor Gillispie encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis F. Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.5 mph this year (94 mph) below where it was last year (95.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so J.P. Crawford can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+200)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+5.90 Units / 113% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)