Toronto Blue Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
(-115/-105)+105
As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 15, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams, though the Rays are not in contention for a playoff spot. The Blue Jays, sitting at 87-62 and having just secured a decisive 11-2 victory, will look to maintain their momentum against the Rays, who are struggling at 73-76 after a narrow 4-3 loss in their last outing.
On the mound, the Rays will send Joe Boyle to the hill. Boyle has had a rough season, currently holding a 1-3 record and a concerning 5.40 ERA over 8 starts. His advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.53 SIERA indicates he might be better than his numbers show. However, he’s projected to pitch just 4.6 innings today, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters—numbers that won’t inspire much confidence against a potent Blue Jays lineup.
In contrast, the Blue Jays will counter with Trey Yesavage, who has performed well this season, ranking 61st among MLB starters. While his projected stats aren’t overwhelmingly impressive, with a projected 4.8 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed, he offers a more reliable option than Boyle at this point. The Blue Jays’ offense, ranked 2nd overall and boasting a 1st best team batting average, should put pressure on Boyle and the Rays’ defense.
Despite the Rays having the 14th ranked offense overall, their strength lies in their ability to steal bases, currently leading the league. However, they may struggle to capitalize against the Blue Jays’ 8th ranked bullpen. Betting markets reflect this uncertainty, with the Rays at +110 and the Blue Jays at -130 in the moneyline. The projected game total of 8.0 runs suggests a competitive matchup, but the Blue Jays’ superior performance could tip the scales in their favor.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-125)The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Daulton Varsho has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Daulton Varsho pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Joe Boyle – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)Compared to the average pitcher, Joe Boyle has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -10.1 fewer adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Tristan Gray – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Tristan Gray is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#3-best on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+105)The Tampa Bay Rays projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-weakest on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 149 games (+9.50 Units / 5% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 86 of their last 149 games (+21.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+160)Ernie Clement has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.05 Units / 82% ROI)