Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-160
As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on September 3, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of a challenging season. The Royals currently hold a record of 70-68, while the Angels sit at 65-73. This matchup marks the second game of the series, and the Royals are looking to bounce back after losing the previous encounter 5-1.
Ryan Bergert is projected to take the mound for the Royals. Despite being ranked as the 201st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Bergert has shown flashes of brilliance this season with an impressive 2.67 ERA. However, his 4.59 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Bergert’s last outing was solid, where he pitched six innings, allowing only one earned run.
On the other side, Caden Dana will make his first start of the season for the Angels. While Dana has faced challenges in his limited appearances, posting a troubling 7.50 ERA, projections indicate he may perform better moving forward. His propensity for fly balls could be a concern, especially against a powerful Royals offense that, despite ranking 24th overall, has shown some potential.
The Royals have a high implied team total of 5.07 runs for today’s game, reflecting confidence in their offensive capabilities. With Bergert on the mound and the Angels struggling to find consistency, Kansas City looks poised to capitalize on this opportunity. As the game total sits at 9.0 runs, it suggests a potential for an engaging matchup that could swing in favor of the Royals.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Oswald Peraza – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Oswald Peraza has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph to 100.7-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Compared to their .327 overall projected rate, the .314 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Angels projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Out of all starting pitchers, Ryan Bergert’s fastball spin rate of 2397 rpm grades out in the 75th percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)In terms of his batting average, Jac Caglianone has had some very poor luck this year. His .147 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .258.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- The 7.7% Barrel% of the Kansas City Royals ranks them as the #25 squad in baseball this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 125 games (+22.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-140)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 108 games (+13.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-110/-120)Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.00 Units / 38% ROI)