Official Lineup for Angels vs Reds - 4/10/2026

+150O/U: 9
(+100/-120)-175

Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in MLB — today.
Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
Mike Trout – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Mike Trout has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 15.5% rate last season to 22.2% this season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (38.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chase Burns – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chase Burns has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 58.1% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
TJ Friedl – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
TJ Friedl’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87.1-mph mark last year has decreased to 82.7-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
The Cincinnati Reds have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Eugenio Suarez, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 away games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)

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