Odds and Betting Trends for Dodgers vs D-Backs – 5/8/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On May 8, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are currently striving to solidify their positions in the National League West, with the Dodgers sitting atop the standings at 25-12, while the Diamondbacks are trying to improve on their average record of 19-18. Arizona’s offense has been impressive, ranking as the 5th best in MLB, but the Dodgers boast an even better offense, ranked 2nd overall.

In the matchup on the mound, Arizona will send Brandon Pfaadt to the hill. Pfaadt has had a solid season with a 5-2 record and a respectable ERA of 3.79. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may not sustain this level of performance, as indicated by his elevated 5.29 xERA. On the opposing side, the Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been exceptional so far, holding a remarkable 0.90 ERA and ranking 3rd among MLB starting pitchers in the advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Both pitchers are right-handed and project to pitch similar innings, but the stark difference in their recent performances creates a favorable scenario for the Dodgers. While Pfaadt is projected to allow 3.0 earned runs, Yamamoto is expected to give up only 2.3 earned runs, providing Los Angeles with a distinct advantage.

With the Dodgers also having strong offensive backing, including a lineup that has generated 4.66 runs per game on average, they enter this matchup as betting favorites with a moneyline of -155. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are underdogs at +135, despite being at home. This matchup has the potential for a high-scoring affair, with a game total set at 8.5 runs, indicating both teams have the capability to put up numbers.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph grades out in the 82nd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 96.4-mph to 98.8-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Los Angeles (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+140)
  The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.49 Units / 16% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-165)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 60% ROI)