Odds and Betting Trends for Braves vs Athletics – 7/8/25

Atlanta Braves

@

Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Atlanta Braves on July 8, 2025, at Sutter Health Park in a matchup that may not have playoff implications but offers intriguing betting angles. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics holding a record of 37-55, while the Braves sit at 39-50. The Athletics have showcased an average offense, ranking 13th in MLB, particularly excelling in home runs, where they rank 9th. On the flip side, the Braves’ offense has been underwhelming, landing at 20th in both batting average and overall offensive ranking.

In their most recent games, the Athletics have faced a rocky stretch but look to bounce back behind their projected starter, Jeffrey Springs. Springs has had a mediocre season with a 6-6 record and a 4.07 ERA. Though he ranks as the 182nd best starting pitcher in MLB, he has been somewhat lucky this season according to his 4.73 xFIP, suggesting potential regression. Springs projects to pitch an average of 4.9 innings, allowing approximately 3.3 earned runs, which is not encouraging.

Didier Fuentes gets the nod for the Braves, and his performance has been even more concerning, sporting a 0-2 record and a dreadful 9.00 ERA. Although his projections indicate a potential for improvement, his current form does not instill confidence. Fuentes is expected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs.

Given the Athletics’ strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, coupled with the Braves’ lackluster offense, this matchup leans slightly in favor of Oakland. Betting markets reflect this sentiment with the Athletics at -105. They have an implied team total of 5.19 runs, which is quite high, indicating that they may have opportunities to capitalize on Fuentes’ struggles. As the game total is set at 10.5 runs, expect an offensive showdown in this interleague clash.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Didier Fuentes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Didier Fuentes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Athletics infield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jacob Wilson’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 85.4-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.8-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Denzel Clarke – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Denzel Clarke hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
  Austin Riley has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 23% ROI)