Odds and Betting Tips for Yankees vs Rockies – 5/23/2025

New York Yankees

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Colorado Rockies

On May 23, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the New York Yankees at Coors Field in an Interleague matchup that carries significant implications for both teams. The Rockies, struggling mightily this season with a record of 8-42, are currently sitting at the bottom of the standings. In stark contrast, the Yankees enter this game with a solid 30-19 record, showcasing their status as one of the top teams in MLB.

In their last outing on May 22, the Rockies were shut out, losing 2-0, while the Yankees managed a narrow 1-0 victory. This result reflects the ongoing struggles of the Rockies’ offense, which ranks 28th overall in MLB, and their reliance on their best hitter, who has been producing at a decent level despite the team’s woes.

Tanner Gordon is projected to take the mound for the Rockies. He has had a rough start this season, with a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 5.68. However, projections suggest he might have been unlucky, as his 4.12 xFIP indicates he could improve. Gordon’s tendency for low walks may provide a slight edge against the Yankees’ patient lineup, which ranks first in walks.

Opposing him is Clarke Schmidt, who has been solid with a 1-1 record and a 4.41 ERA. Schmidt has demonstrated potential, particularly in his last start, where he pitched effectively, allowing only 2 earned runs in 6 innings. The Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, and their projections suggest they could score heavily, making them heavy favorites with an implied team total of 7.31 runs for this matchup.

While the Rockies’ bullpen ranks 12th in Power Rankings, their overall performance will need to be significantly better to contain the Yankees, who are poised to dominate this series opener. With the Rockies’ batting difficulties and Schmidt’s potential for a strong outing, it appears the Yankees are well-positioned to continue building momentum in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Clarke Schmidt’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (88.2% compared to 79.1% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Trent Grisham is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees in today’s game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .337, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .350 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+220)
  Tanner Gordon has recorded a .366 BABIP since the start of last season, making him one of the unluckiest mound aces in the game on balls in play with improved performance likely coming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Colorado Rockies batters jointly rank 21st- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 92.2-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 50 games (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.61 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-150)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.90 Units / 32% ROI)