Odds and Betting Tips for Reds vs Giants – 4/8/2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants host the Cincinnati Reds on April 8, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their seasons. The Giants stand strong with an impressive 8-2 record, while the Reds have struggled, holding a 4-7 mark. The Giants not only rank as high as 2nd in MLB for their bullpen, but they also look to build on their success after a recent game where Landen Roupp started and pitched effectively, although with a high ERA of 6.75 this season.

Tonight’s matchup features Roupp, a right-handed pitcher, taking on the Reds’ lefty, Nick Lodolo, who has been stellar with a 1.42 ERA. However, the advanced projections suggest that Roupp might be due for better results, indicated by his 4.00 xFIP, which hints at potential bad luck thus far. Roupp is a high-walk pitcher, often facing a Reds lineup that is known for being impatient, which could tilt the advantage in his favor despite his struggles.

Lodolo, coming in with a solid win-loss record of 1-1, is projected to pitch 5.5 innings tonight while allowing about 2.7 earned runs. However, he has been dealing with a higher xFIP of 4.35, suggesting that he might not be as dominant as his ERA implies. The Reds’ offense ranks 26th overall in MLB, struggling to generate runs, while the Giants’ offense, though average at 16th, has shown flashes of power, ranking 13th in home runs.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs set for this contest, the betting markets reflect a close matchup, but the Giants’ status as the home team and their higher standings make them the more favorable option in this bout.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Nick Lodolo has relied on his sinker 15.9% more often this season (29.2%) than he did last year (13.3%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.3) suggests that TJ Friedl has been lucky since the start of last season with his 22.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Landen Roupp’s 2008-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 8th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Wilmer Flores is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The San Francisco Giants have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 129 games (+8.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 143 games (+15.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 61% ROI)