Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles
(-105/-115)-150
The Baltimore Orioles will host the Cleveland Guardians on April 15, 2025, in a matchup that finds both teams struggling to find consistency this season. The Orioles sit at 6-9, having lost their last game against the Guardians by a score of 7-6 on April 13. Meanwhile, the Guardians are slightly better at 8-7, but they also come off a loss, falling 4-2 in their most recent outing.
On the mound, the Orioles will send Charlie Morton to the hill. Morton has had a rough start to the season, with a 0-3 record and an alarming ERA of 8.78. Despite this, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.98 is significantly lower than his ERA. He projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, allowing around 2.3 earned runs, which could give the Orioles a fighting chance if he can manage to limit the damage.
The Guardians will counter with Logan Allen, who has struggled as well, sporting an ERA of 3.60 but a concerning xFIP of 5.53. Allen’s high walk rate of 15.6% could be problematic against an Orioles offense that ranks 17th in the league. However, the Guardians’ bullpen is ranked 1st, providing a strong support system late in games.
Offensively, the Orioles have the edge in overall performance, ranking 15th in batting average and 18th in home runs. In contrast, the Guardians are 20th in batting average and 14th in home runs, indicating that both teams have room for improvement.
With the Orioles favored at -150 and an implied team total of 4.62 runs, they will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and turn around their early-season woes against Cleveland.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+130)The Cleveland Guardians infield defense profiles as the best out of every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Over the last 7 days, Kyle Manzardo’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 21.2% up to 44.4%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Projected catcher Bo Naylor projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Given that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Charlie Morton (33.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Tyler O’Neill has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 83.7-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Baltimore’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in MLB: #3 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+0.45 Units / 3% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+6.60 Units / 23% ROI)