Nationals vs Royals Injury Report – Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Kansas City Royals

On August 13, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Washington Nationals for the third game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals are currently hovering around .500 with a record of 60-60, while the Nationals are struggling significantly at 47-72. Both teams have had disappointing seasons, but the Royals have shown some resilience recently. In their last game, they pulled off a crucial victory against the Nationals, which could provide them with some momentum.

The matchup on the mound features Seth Lugo for Kansas City and Jake Irvin for Washington. Lugo, who has started 22 games this year with an 8-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.46, is projected to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs. His performance has been viewed as above average, especially given that he ranks 125th out of approximately 350 MLB starters. Conversely, Irvin is not as promising, boasting an ERA of 4.90 and a record of 8-7. He projects to struggle against a Royals lineup that, despite ranking 26th in overall offense, is adept at putting the ball in play with the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB.

The Royals’ offense has found some life recently, especially from their best hitter, who is batting .417 over the last week. Meanwhile, the Nationals, ranked 23rd overall in offensive power, face a tough task against a more favorable matchup on the mound for Kansas City. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Royals, especially given their strong implied team total of 5.10 runs. As Lugo takes the mound against a less effective Nationals lineup, Kansas City appears poised to capitalize on this opportunity.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has relied on his secondary offerings 5.3% more often this year (47%) than he did last season (41.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Luis Garcia Jr. has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Washington Nationals bats collectively place 24th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 7.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last season (92.2 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Kyle Isbel’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 90-mph figure last year has fallen off to 86.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 45 games at home (+19.90 Units / 37% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)