Nationals vs Pirates Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, April 14, 2025

Washington Nationals

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals on April 14, 2025, in what is shaping up to be a crucial matchup for both teams, as they struggle near the bottom of the standings. The Pirates currently sit at 5-11, while the Nationals are slightly ahead at 6-9. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around after disappointing performances in their most recent games—Pittsburgh lost 4-0, and Washington fell 11-4.

Paul Skenes is slated to take the mound for the Pirates, and he comes into this game with a reputation as an elite pitcher, ranking 1st among approximately 350 pitchers in advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite a recent rough outing where he allowed 5 earned runs, his overall season ERA stands at a solid 3.44, and he’s projected to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 1.7 earned runs today. However, he does have some concerning projections, including allowing 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which could open the door for the Nationals’ offense.

On the other side, Brad Lord will start for Washington. He has been effective thus far, with a stellar ERA of 1.80, but his xFIP of 5.23 indicates he may have been fortunate. Lord’s low strikeout rate and high walk rate might be problematic against a Pirates lineup that has shown patience, ranking 6th in MLB in walks.

Offensively, the Pirates rank 30th in MLB, struggling significantly at the plate, while the Nationals boast a much better offensive ranking at 9th. However, the Pirates have been strong on the base paths, sitting 6th in stolen bases, which could play a key role in this matchup.

With a game total set at just 7.0 runs, oddsmakers favor the Pirates with a moneyline of -210, reflecting a 65% implied win probability. This matchup presents a fascinating dynamic, especially considering the Pirates’ struggles but also their potential to capitalize on Lord’s control issues.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Brad Lord – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bradley Lord to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 70 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+170)
  The 3rd-worst projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has used his secondary pitches 24.4% more often this season (56.8%) than he did last year (32.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tommy Pham has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 43% ROI)