Nationals vs Marlins Game Time – 9/11/2025

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 11, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum after a decisive victory in their last matchup. The Marlins emerged victorious, defeating the Nationals 8-3, showcasing their offensive strength despite currently holding a subpar record of 67-79 this season. Meanwhile, the Nationals have struggled significantly, with a record of 60-85, marking a disappointing campaign.

On the mound, both teams will feature left-handed pitchers: Ryan Weathers for the Marlins and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. Weathers, ranked 85th among starting pitchers in MLB, has had a solid season with a 3.28 ERA, though projections suggest he might see a decline in performance moving forward. He’s averaging 5.2 innings pitched and is projected to allow 2.0 earned runs today, which bodes well for the Marlins’ chances.

Conversely, MacKenzie Gore, ranked 79th, has had a tough year with a 4.15 ERA and a disappointing 5-13 win-loss record. Although he projects to allow 2.0 earned runs as well, his innings pitched average is just 4.8, indicating potential trouble in the later innings against the Marlins’ lineup.

The Marlins’ offense ranks 21st overall but sits at 13th in batting average, suggesting they can string together hits. The Nationals, while averaging slightly better in batting average at 17th, rank 23rd in overall offensive production, which could spell trouble against a capable pitcher like Weathers.

Given the Marlins’ recent form and their slight edge in starting pitching, they stand as the favorites today. The projections indicate a close contest, but Miami’s recent success could tilt the balance in their favor as they look to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to average, MacKenzie Gore has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 6.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Riley Adams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Riley Adams has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Ryan Weathers has relied on his four-seamer 8.8% more often this season (48.5%) than he did last year (39.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Joey Wiemer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Wiemer has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph to 96.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Miami Marlins projected batting order today (.297 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .309 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+13.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 away games (+13.05 Units / 23% ROI)
• Nasim Nunez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Nasim Nunez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+6.80 Units / 97% ROI)