Nationals vs Cubs Best Bets and Expert Picks – Saturday March 28, 2026

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

Washington Nationals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Miles Mikolas’s 2217-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 18th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nasim Nunez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Chicago’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Nasim Nunez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Cade Horton to have a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Michael Busch’s 17% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) grades out in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+19.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 81 of their last 146 games (+9.82 Units / 6% ROI)