Mets vs Phillies Picks and Betting Odds – 10/6/2024

New York Mets

@

Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets gear up for the second game of their National League Division Series matchup on October 6, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, the stakes are high. The Phillies, who fell to the Mets 6-2 on October 5, will be looking to bounce back and leverage their home-field advantage. With the Phillies ranked 4th in offense this season, their potent lineup will be a key factor as they seek to even the series.

Cristopher Sanchez takes the mound for the Phillies, bringing his impressive 3.32 ERA and a reputation as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ability to induce groundballs might be crucial against a Mets lineup that ranks 6th in home runs. Sanchez’s projections suggest he may allow 2.1 earned runs today, a favorable outlook for Philadelphia.

On the other side, the Mets counter with Luis Severino, whose 3.91 ERA and average rating highlight his season. Severino’s projections are less optimistic, with expectations of 2.6 earned runs allowed and only 4.1 strikeouts. The Mets’ offense, ranked 9th, will need to capitalize on any opportunities Severino can create.

The Phillies hold a slight edge in betting odds, with a moneyline of -155 translating to a 59% implied win probability. Meanwhile, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a 60% chance of victory, suggesting value in their odds. Philadelphia’s offense, led by Kyle Schwarber, who boasts a .855 OPS over 151 games, will aim to exploit Severino’s vulnerabilities.

With both teams sporting average bullpens, the outcome might hinge on which starter can outperform expectations. The Phillies are poised to take advantage of their offensive prowess and Sanchez’s groundball tendencies to level the series.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)
  Luis Severino has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Bryce Harper is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Philadelphia Phillies (23.6% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone batting order of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 73 games (+15.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 104 games (+20.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 games at home (+10.70 Units / 82% ROI)