Mets vs Blue Jays Game Highlights – Tuesday, September 10, 2024

New York Mets

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the New York Mets on September 10, 2024, they look to reverse their fortunes after a narrow 3-2 loss in yesterday’s matchup. Currently, the Blue Jays sit at 68-77 this season, marking a below-average year, while the Mets boast a solid 79-65 record, putting them in a better position overall.

Projected starters Chris Bassitt and David Peterson present an intriguing contrast. Bassitt, ranked as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a challenging season with a 9-13 record and a 4.30 ERA. His recent performance saw him allow three earned runs over five innings in his last outing, which was deemed uneventful. He faces a Mets lineup that ranks 9th in MLB offensively, showcasing their ability to produce runs.

On the other hand, David Peterson has been excellent this season with a 9-1 record and an impressive 2.75 ERA. Despite his low strikeout rate, he pitched well in his last start, allowing just one earned run over six innings with 11 strikeouts. However, his xFIP of 4.20 suggests he may be due for a regression.

The projections favor the Blue Jays, who are expected to score an average of 4.57 runs in this game, compared to the Mets’ 4.22. Given the Blue Jays’ recent offensive surge, highlighted by Spencer Horwitz’s strong performance over the past week, they may have the edge against Peterson’s left-handed pitching. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, bettors should prepare for a competitive matchup as both teams aim for victory.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, David Peterson (49.3% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Toronto’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive skill to be a .319, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .057 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .376 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The New York Mets have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mark Vientos, J.D. Martinez, Eddy Alvarez, D.J. Stewart, Francisco Alvarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Chris Bassitt’s four-seamer usage has dropped by 5.2% from last year to this one (9.3% to 4.1%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Alejandro Kirk is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+15.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 100 games (+16.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 48 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)