Match Preview: Mets vs Reds Game Forecast and Analysis – Friday, September 5, 2025

New York Mets

@

Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the New York Mets on September 5, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing losses in their last outings. The Reds fell to the Mets 13-9, while the Mets struggled with a 6-2 defeat. This matchup marks the beginning of a series that could have implications for both teams as they look to solidify their positions in the standings.

Currently, the Reds sit at .500 with a 70-70 record, indicating an average season, while the Mets boast a stronger 75-65 record, showcasing an above-average performance. On the mound, the Reds will send Andrew Abbott, who has been solid this year with an 8-5 record and an impressive 2.65 ERA. However, projections suggest that he may be due for a regression, as his 4.35 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat lucky this season. Abbott’s last start was encouraging, allowing only 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

David Peterson will take the hill for the Mets, also with an 8-5 record but a higher ERA of 3.61. Peterson’s last outing was a nightmare, where he surrendered 8 earned runs in just 2 innings, raising concerns about his ability to bounce back. The projections suggest he could struggle again, particularly given the Reds’ offensive ranking of 17th in MLB, which has been average at best.

Despite the Reds’ recent struggles, they have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs for this game, which could indicate confidence in their ability to capitalize on Peterson’s recent form. The Mets, with their powerful lineup ranked 4th in MLB, are expected to score 4.55 runs, but Abbott’s strong pitching could keep them in check. With both teams eager to improve their standings, this game promises to be a competitive clash.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  David Peterson’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this season (90.6 mph) below where it was last season (91.9 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme flyball batters like Starling Marte usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York’s 90.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 116 games (+22.80 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+8.80 Units / 98% ROI)