Marlins vs Pirates Betting Line and Odds – September 10, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Miami Marlins on September 10, 2024, both teams are looking to shake off disappointing seasons. The Pirates sit at 68-76, while the Marlins are struggling significantly with a 54-90 record. The significance of this matchup is heightened as it marks the second game in their series, with the Pirates having edged out the Marlins 3-2 in their previous encounter on September 9.

On the mound, the Pirates project to start Carmen Mlodzinski, who has been effective in limited appearances, boasting a solid 3.73 ERA despite starting no games this season. However, he faces a challenge as he is projected to pitch only 1.4 innings, which raises concerns about his ability to navigate the Marlins’ lineup effectively. In contrast, Adam Oller of the Marlins has struggled throughout the year, holding a 4.15 ERA and allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs per game.

The Pirates’ offense, while ranked 27th in MLB, has shown some signs of life, especially with Bryan Reynolds leading the charge. Reynolds has been a consistent performer, highlighted by his 0.275 batting average and 22 home runs this season. In comparison, the Marlins have the 29th-ranked offense, and their best hitter, Jake Burger, has not been able to provide the necessary firepower.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Pirates are favored to win today with a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. The projections suggest that Pittsburgh could score around 5.36 runs against a struggling Marlins pitching staff, giving them a distinct advantage in this matchup. With both teams looking to end their seasons on a high note, the Pirates appear poised to take another victory over Miami.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Adam Oller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  With 6 bats who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Adam Oller figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.347) may lead us to conclude that Jesus Sanchez has had some very poor luck this year with his .313 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will be challenged by the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Carmen Mlodzinski – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starters, Carmen Mlodzinski’s fastball velocity of 94.3 mph ranks in the 78th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Billy Cook).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 62 of their last 114 games (+9.35 Units / 6% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 56 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 51% ROI)