Marlins vs Mets Injury Report – Saturday, August 17, 2024

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to face the Miami Marlins on August 17, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams are coming off contrasting performances, with the Mets looking to build on a recent win. Currently, the Mets sit at 63-59, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins struggle at 45-77, marking a disappointing campaign. This National League East matchup is crucial for the Mets as they aim to maintain momentum and solidify their position in the standings.

Luis Severino is projected to take the mound for the Mets. Despite being ranked as the 155th best starting pitcher in MLB, Severino has managed a respectable 4.17 ERA this season and is coming off a solid outing. He typically pitches around 5.9 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, which is favorable against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th overall in the league. Miami’s lineup has also been inconsistent, highlighted by their lack of power, hitting only 85 home runs this year, the 2nd least in MLB.

Max Meyer is set to start for the Marlins, and while he has a slightly better Win/Loss record of 3-2, his ERA stands at a troubling 5.20. His projections also indicate that he may struggle, as he typically allows 2.7 earned runs and has a below-average strikeout rate of 4.5 batters per game. Given the Mets’ offense, which ranks 10th in MLB and boasts a potent power threat with their 4th best home run tally, they are well-positioned to capitalize on Meyer’s shortcomings.

With the Mets heavily favored at a moneyline of -185 and an implied team total of 4.85 runs, bettors may find value in backing New York to secure another victory over a struggling Miami team that has an implied total of just 3.65 runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Max Meyer is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Jesus Sanchez will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

New York Mets Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Luis Severino’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (61.3 vs. 48.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive ability to be a .319, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .057 deviation between that mark and his actual .376 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-195/+150)
  Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+19.10 Units / 37% ROI)