Marlins vs Braves Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/02/2024

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins on August 2, 2024, in what is the second game of their series. The Braves sit at 59-49, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins struggle with a record of 40-69, marking a disappointing campaign. After a solid win against the Marlins yesterday, where they took the game 4-2, the Braves will look to continue their momentum.

Spencer Schwellenbach is projected to take the mound for Atlanta. He ranks as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, which indicates he has been effective this season. Schwellenbach has shown potential, with a 4-5 record and a 4.06 ERA, but his 3.47 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. His last outing was impressive, as he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and struck out 11 batters.

On the flip side, Valente Bellozo will start for Miami, and he has struggled in his limited appearances, with a 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA. His last start saw him allow 5 earned runs over just 5 innings, which raises concerns about his ability to handle Atlanta’s lineup. The Braves have a solid offense that ranks 14th in MLB, highlighted by Marcell Ozuna’s standout season, while the Marlins’ offense ranks 29th overall.

With the Braves heavily favored, current projections suggest they could score around 5.72 runs, while the Marlins are expected to average only 4.27 runs in this matchup. This game presents a clear advantage for Atlanta, especially given Schwellenbach’s recent form and the struggles of Bellozo on the mound.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  In his last GS, Valente Bellozo turned in a great performance and compiled 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  In terms of his batting average, Otto Lopez has had some very poor luck this year. His .226 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .279.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins makes them the #23 club in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+160)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Spencer Schwellenbach has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -7.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Orlando Arcia is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+24.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 away games (+10.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)