Mariners vs Reds Injury Report – Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Cincinnati Reds

On April 16, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Seattle Mariners at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Mariners took the first game of this series yesterday, edging out the Reds in a close contest.

As it stands, the Reds are 9-8 this season, performing slightly above average, while the Mariners sit at 8-9, struggling to find their footing. Cincinnati’s offense has had a tough time, ranking as the 27th best in MLB, and their projected starting pitcher, Nick Martinez, has struggled with a 0-2 record and a dismal ERA of 6.06. While Martinez’s 3.74 xFIP suggests he may be due for better luck, he will face a Mariners lineup that is 9th in home runs with 21 this season, a clear advantage for Seattle.

Conversely, the Mariners will send Bryce Miller to the mound, who, despite a winless record of 0-2 as well, has shown promise with a more respectable ERA of 4.50. Projections indicate that both pitchers are likely to allow earned runs in the range of 2.4 to 2.8 today, but with Martinez’s tendency to give up fly balls against a powerful Mariners offense, it could lead to a challenging outing for the Reds’ right-hander.

Further compounding the Reds’ woes is their batting average, sitting at 29th in the league. The Reds’ best hitter has performed solidly lately, with a .400 average and 0.993 OPS over the last week, but overall, the lineup has struggled to deliver consistently.

As both teams look to capitalize on their opportunities and improve their standings, this matchup could go either way, making it a compelling game for bettors looking to capitalize on the tight odds between these two squads.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Bryce Miller is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jorge Polanco usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Martinez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Nick Martinez has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 5.2% more often this season (63.4%) than he did last year (58.2%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 82 games at home (+5.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 64% ROI)