Mariners vs Phillies Betting Guide and Expert Picks August 19th, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Seattle Mariners on August 19, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. The Phillies currently sit at 72-53, enjoying a solid season and looking to build on their recent success after defeating the Mariners 12-7 in their last game. Meanwhile, the Mariners, with a record of 68-58, are having an above-average season but will need to rebound from their recent loss.

Cristopher Sanchez, projected to start for the Phillies, is having an elite season, ranking as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. With a Win/Loss record of 11-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.45, Sanchez has been a key contributor to the Phillies’ success. However, projections indicate that he may have been a bit lucky this season, as his 3.10 SIERA suggests potential regression. Sanchez is also a high-groundball pitcher, which could work in his favor against the Mariners’ powerful offense, known for their 178 home runs this season, ranking 3rd in MLB.

On the other side, Bryce Miller is set to take the mound for the Mariners. With a record of 2-5 and a troubling ERA of 5.73, Miller has struggled this year, and projections suggest he may continue to face challenges. His average of 4.8 projected innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed doesn’t inspire confidence against a Phillies offense that ranks 8th overall and 3rd in batting average.

With the Phillies favored heavily in the betting markets, they will look to capitalize on their advantage against a Mariners team that needs to find consistency. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup, but the Phillies’ strong offensive capabilities and Sanchez’s elite performance suggest they could take charge once again.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bryce Miller is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Bats such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Cristopher Sanchez will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+12.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 away games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+8.55 Units / 43% ROI)