Live Updates on Mets vs Mariners – 8/10/24

New York Mets

@

Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners host the New York Mets at T-Mobile Park on August 10, 2024, both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mariners sitting at 60-56 and the Mets at 61-54. This matchup is crucial as each team aims to solidify their standings in a competitive league. Interestingly, in their last game, the Mariners fell short against the Mets, making this the second game in the series—a vital opportunity for Seattle to even the score.

Logan Gilbert is scheduled to pitch for the Mariners, and he’s been a noteworthy performer this season with a 3.05 ERA, ranking as the 30th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced stats. Despite a 6-8 record, his strong ERA suggests he’s been a victim of poor run support, as evidenced by Seattle’s 30th ranking in team batting average. On the other side, Sean Manaea will take the hill for the Mets, boasting an impressive 8-4 record and a solid 3.30 ERA. However, his 4.17 xFIP indicates he may have benefited from some luck thus far.

The Mariners’ offense struggles, ranking dead last in batting average, yet they have found some power, sitting 14th in home runs. Luke Raley has been their standout hitter recently, contributing 7 RBIs and 3 home runs in his last 5 games, along with a .333 batting average. For the Mets, Pete Alonso has been on fire, driving in 6 runs over his last 7 games with a .320 batting average and 3 home runs.

Betting markets see the Mariners as slight favorites, with a moneyline set at -135. However, projections suggest Seattle has a better chance to outperform expectations, projected to score an average of 4.36 runs, compared to the Mets’ projected 3.82 runs. This context makes for a compelling matchup as both teams look to make a statement in a tightly contested game.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Sean Manaea has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Brandon Nimmo is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York’s 89.1-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #8 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Logan Gilbert’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (67.5% compared to 57.9% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jorge Polanco has suffered from bad luck this year. His .279 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Mitch Garver pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games at home (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 61 of their last 105 games (+8.90 Units / 7% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 16 games (+9.30 Units / 58% ROI)