Live Updates on D-Backs vs Cardinals – 5/24/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 24, 2025, they enter this matchup with a solid 28-23 record, while the Diamondbacks sit at 26-25. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, with the Cardinals having edged out the Diamondbacks 4-3 in their previous game just a day earlier.

The Cardinals will send left-hander Matthew Liberatore to the mound, who has been solid this season with a 3-3 record and a commendable 2.92 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 107th best starting pitcher in MLB, his peripheral stats suggest he might be due for some positive regression. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.6 walks could challenge him against a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 5th in the league for walks.

On the other side, Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, who boasts a 5-2 record and a 3.26 ERA, making him the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB. Kelly is coming off a strong performance where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and 11 strikeouts. His projections indicate he will pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which should keep the game competitive.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 8th in MLB, showcasing a good batting average but struggling with power, sitting 20th in home runs. The Diamondbacks, however, have an impressive offense, ranking 4th overall and 5th in home runs. This could be a crucial factor in determining the game’s outcome.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Merrill Kelly’s higher usage rate of his fastball this season (40.1 vs. 34.2% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Hitters such as Eugenio Suarez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Matthew Liberatore who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Eugenio Suarez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Matthew Liberatore’s 2056-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 7th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (18.6 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-120)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 52% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1500/-50000)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 away games (+11.50 Units / 115% ROI)