Live Updates on Angels vs Yankees – 8/06/24

Los Angeles Angels

@

New York Yankees

On August 7, 2024, the New York Yankees will host the Los Angeles Angels at Yankee Stadium for the second game of a double-header. The Yankees currently sit at 68-46, firmly in the playoff hunt, while the Angels struggle with a 49-64 record. In their last matchup, the Yankees edged out the Toronto Blue Jays with a tight 4-3 victory, continuing their strong season.

The Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has had a rough go this year, with a troubling 6.75 ERA in just one start. However, his 4.58 xFIP indicates he may be due for some positive regression. Warren’s average projection of 5.4 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed suggests he could provide a solid outing against a struggling Angels lineup. The Angels will counter with Carson Fulmer, who has been effective in limited appearances, boasting a 3.69 ERA but a concerning 4.47 xFIP, hinting at potential struggles ahead.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, highlighted by Aaron Judge, who has been on fire lately with a .438 batting average over the past week. In contrast, the Angels rank 25th in offense, which could spell trouble against a Yankees team that excels at drawing walks—an area where Fulmer has struggled with a high walk rate.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Yankees are favored to win with a projected team total of 5.60 runs, while the Angels are expected to score around 4.07 runs. This matchup highlights a significant disparity in both teams’ current forms and overall capabilities, making the Yankees a strong choice for bettors looking to capitalize on their solid season.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Carson Fulmer – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Carson Fulmer to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, compiling a .197 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .300 — a .103 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mickey Moniak, Jo Adell, Charles Leblanc).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 6 batters who share his hand in the opposing team’s projected offense, Will Warren figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York’s 90-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the majors: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 53 games (+19.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 away games (+14.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 64% ROI)