Live Updates on Angels vs Athletics – 5/21/25

Los Angeles Angels

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Athletics

The Oakland Athletics will host the Los Angeles Angels at Sutter Health Park on May 21, 2025, in a pivotal matchup between two struggling teams in the American League West. Both clubs are looking to turn their seasons around, with the Athletics sitting at 22-27 and the Angels slightly better at 22-25. Yesterday, the Angels edged out the Athletics with a 7-5 victory, further highlighting the struggles of both teams.

In this series finale, the Athletics are projected to start JP Sears, a left-handed pitcher with a 4-3 record and a solid 3.31 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 4.44 xFIP indicates potential for regression. Sears will face Angels right-hander Jack Kochanowicz, who has had a rough season with a 3-5 record and a 4.71 ERA. Kochanowicz’s projections are not encouraging, as he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 11th in MLB, bolstered by a potent home run attack, ranking 9th overall. Their best hitter has been performing well recently, batting .333 over the last week with an OPS of 1.389. In contrast, the Angels’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB and has struggled to find consistency despite their power, ranking 3rd in home runs.

The Athletics are currently favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting their higher implied team total of 5.57 runs. With both teams desperate for a win, the Athletics will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and turn their season around against an Angels squad that has also faced its share of challenges.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jack Kochanowicz has gone to his secondary pitches 9.1% more often this year (30.6%) than he did last year (21.5%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Taylor Ward is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#1-worst of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Zach Neto pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all starters, JP Sears’s fastball spin rate of 2017 rpm grades out in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Seth Brown – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Seth Brown has big-time HR ability (88th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (26.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jack Kochanowicz doesn’t generate many whiffs (25th percentile K%) — great news for Brown.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-most strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Athletics with a 24.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 37 games (+4.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+130)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+8.25 Units / 75% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)