Live Updates for Rangers vs Blue Jays – 8/16/2025

Texas Rangers

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers square off on August 16, 2025, at Rogers Centre for the second game of their series. The Blue Jays are enjoying a strong season with a record of 72-51, while the Rangers sit at 61-62, struggling to find their footing. In their last encounter, the Blue Jays edged the Rangers 6-5, continuing their upward trajectory.

Toronto’s starting pitcher, Eric Lauer, has been a key contributor to the Blue Jays’ success. With a Win/Loss record of 7-2 and an impressive 2.82 ERA, Lauer ranks as one of the better pitchers on the team despite being rated #188 in Power Rankings for MLB starters. However, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he may not be as effective moving forward, as he projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs today, which could be concerning. Nevertheless, Lauer’s recent performance and the Blue Jays’ potent offense—ranking 4th in MLB—provide a solid foundation for a favorable outcome.

On the other side, the Rangers will send Patrick Corbin to the mound. Corbin has a 6-8 record this season and a 4.00 ERA. Despite being a left-handed pitcher like Lauer, his low strikeout rate (19.6 K%) could prove problematic against a Blue Jays lineup that excels at making contact, ranking as the team with the least strikeouts in MLB. Corbin projects to allow 3.4 earned runs today, which is not ideal given the Blue Jays’ offensive prowess.

With the Blue Jays holding the edge in both pitching and hitting, they are positioned as betting favorites with a moneyline of -165. This matchup could further solidify their playoff aspirations, while the Rangers will need a strong performance to stay competitive.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin has utilized his secondary offerings 7.3% more often this season (65.9%) than he did last year (58.6%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Josh Jung has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph to 93.3-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Andres Gimenez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .223 figure is considerably lower than his .269 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-170)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 119 games (+18.19 Units / 12% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 109 games (+8.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.40 Units / 72% ROI)