Live Updates for Phillies vs Braves – 8/22/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on August 22, 2024, they face a critical matchup in a tight series. The Braves look to rebound after a narrow 3-2 loss to the Phillies yesterday, which continued their struggles at the plate while showcasing a resilient Phillies squad. Currently, the Braves hold a record of 67-59, placing them in a position to capitalize on any weakness from the division-leading Phillies, who are at 74-52.

In this high-stakes game, the Braves will send right-handed pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound. Although Schwellenbach’s season has been marked by inconsistency, he ranks as the 28th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His projected 5.2 innings pitched with an average of 2.3 earned runs suggests he could keep the game within reach, especially given that the projections indicate the Braves are expected to score around 4.45 runs.

On the other hand, Cristopher Sanchez takes the hill for the Phillies. Sanchez recently turned in a remarkable complete game performance where he allowed just 1 earned run over 9 innings, reinforcing his status as a solid option with a 36th overall ranking among starting pitchers. However, with a projected 5.4 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed, there’s potential for Schwellenbach to exploit the Phillies’ high-walk offense, as he’s known for his good control.

Offensively, the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna has been the standout hitter this season, ranking as their best with 37 home runs and a .309 batting average. Conversely, the Phillies boast Kyle Schwarber, who has also delivered strong numbers, but his OPS of .848 lags behind Ozuna’s impressive .975.

Given these dynamics, the Braves, despite being slight underdogs with a moneyline set at -110, show promise based on their underlying talent metrics and the projections suggesting they can claim victory in a closely contested matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez (55.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Trea Turner has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .311 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Weston Wilson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Spencer Schwellenbach’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (65.7% this year) ought to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  Whit Merrifield is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Atlanta’s 90.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in MLB: #1 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 110 games (+27.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+420/-660)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 away games (+8.75 Units / 42% ROI)