Live Updates for Padres vs Dodgers – 6/18/2025

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On June 18, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres in a critical National League West matchup at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers currently hold a solid record of 45-29, showcasing a great season, while the Padres sit at 39-33, which is considered above average. In their previous encounter on June 17, the Dodgers emerged victorious with an 8-6 win, continuing their strong run.

Tonight’s matchup features Dodgers’ right-handed pitcher Emmet Sheehan, who has had a mixed season projecting to allow 2.1 earned runs over an average of 3.8 innings pitched. While Sheehan’s last outing was impressive, going 6 innings with just 2 earned runs and 10 strikeouts, his season-long projections indicate he may struggle against a powerful offense. The Dodgers’ offense ranks 1st in the league, leading in runs and home runs, making this a daunting challenge for any pitcher.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Stephen Kolek, who has been struggling in recent outings. Kolek’s projections suggest he will allow around 3.6 earned runs across 4.6 innings, which could be problematic against a lineup that excels in power hitting. Moreover, his high xFIP of 4.34 indicates a likely regression, suggesting that the Dodgers could capitalize on any mistakes.

Given their offensive prowess and Kolek’s shaky performance projection, the Dodgers are favored to win, with the current moneyline at -205. With an implied team total of 5.54 runs, the Dodgers look positioned not just to win, but to do so in commanding fashion against a Padres team that has struggled to find consistency at the plate.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Stephen Kolek – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Stephen Kolek will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped off to 85.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres with a 19.6% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Max Muncy tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Stephen Kolek.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+7.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Andy Pages has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)