Live Updates for Mets vs Twins – 4/16/2025

New York Mets

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Minnesota Twins

On April 16, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will welcome the New York Mets to Target Field for the third game of their interleague series. The Twins are currently struggling with a record of 6-12, while the Mets are enjoying a strong season at 11-6. In their last outing, the Twins snapped a losing streak by defeating the Mets 6-3, marking a notable turnaround for a team that has had a rough start.

Projected starters David Festa and Jose Urena will take the mound, both right-handed pitchers. Festa has an impressive ERA of 0.00 this season, suggesting he’s been exceptionally lucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.47. Although he’s been effective, the projections indicate that he may not sustain this performance. On the other hand, Urena’s recent performance leaves much to be desired; he was hit hard in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs over 5 innings, which speaks to potential vulnerabilities in his game.

The Twins’ offense ranks 26th in MLB, struggling to generate runs and power, and is particularly weak in home runs and batting average, placing them 27th in both categories. Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense, while not in top form either at 22nd in the league, has shown flashes of productivity, especially from their best hitter, who boasts a .356 batting average and a 1.195 OPS this season.

Given the current trends and the statistics at play, Minnesota’s pitching advantage with Festa could be a deciding factor, especially against a Mets lineup that, while better than the Twins’, is still not firing on all cylinders. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a balanced matchup, but the Twins’ ability to capitalize on Festa’s strong outing could swing the game in their favor.

New York Mets Insights

• Starling Marte – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like David Festa.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that groundball batters hold a notable edge over flyball pitchers, David Festa and his 32.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today going up against 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Edouard Julien has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)