Live Updates for Mets vs Twins – 4/16/2025

New York Mets

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the New York Mets on April 16, 2025, both teams are coming off a pivotal matchup yesterday, where the Twins secured a 6-3 victory, while the Mets faced a similar fate in defeat. The Twins, currently struggling with a 6-12 record, find themselves in 5th place in the American League Central, while the Mets sit at a solid 11-6, positioned 2nd in the National League East.

The Twins are projected to start David Festa, who boasts an impressive 0.00 ERA this season, despite a less favorable 4.47 xFIP. Festa’s performance has been characterized by a bit of luck, and he projects to pitch 4.5 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs. However, his ability to strike out only 4.7 batters per game raises concerns against a Mets lineup that, while not elite, is still capable of capitalizing on mistakes.

On the other side, Justin Hagenman is expected to take the mound for the Mets. His projections indicate a challenging outing, with an average of 3.2 innings pitched and 1.8 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers are right-handed, setting the stage for a battle that may hinge on which offense can break through against the opposing starter.

While the Twins rank a dismal 25th in MLB offensive output this season, their bullpen shines at 6th best, which could play a crucial role in late-game situations. The Mets, ranked 22nd offensively, have shown some power with their best hitter boasting 5 home runs and a stellar 1.195 OPS.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, leaning slightly towards the Twins with a moneyline of -130. This matchup presents an opportunity for the Twins to build on their recent momentum, while the Mets will look to rebound from their recent loss and maintain their strong start to the season.

New York Mets Insights

• Luisangel Acuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Luisangel Acuna usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Festa.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Given that groundball batters hold a notable edge over flyball pitchers, David Festa and his 32.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today going up against 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Edouard Julien has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Harrison Bader hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+2.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jesse Winker – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-165)
  Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)