Live Updates for Giants vs Cubs – 5/07/2025

San Francisco Giants

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Chicago Cubs

On May 7, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field for the third game in their series. The Cubs currently sit at 22-15, while the Giants are slightly ahead with a record of 23-14. Both teams are having strong seasons, but the Cubs are looking to bounce back after a tough 14-5 loss to the Giants in their last matchup on May 6.

Ben Brown is slated to take the mound for the Cubs, bringing a mixed bag of performances this season. Despite a below-average ERA of 4.88, his 3.82 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. Brown’s last outing was impressive, as he pitched six innings without allowing any earned runs. He projects to average 5.3 innings today, allowing 1.7 earned runs, which would be elite if accurate.

In contrast, Giants’ ace Robbie Ray comes in with a solid 3.05 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record this season. However, his 4.16 xFIP raises concerns about sustainability. Ray will need to navigate a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs and 2nd in batting average across MLB. The Cubs’ offensive prowess can turn Ray’s flyball tendencies into runs, presenting a challenge for him today.

The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -165, reflecting a 60% implied win probability. Their offense is expected to leverage their rankings against a Giants team that has struggled offensively, sitting at 15th overall. If the projections hold, the Cubs have an edge in this pivotal matchup, aiming to even the series.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Robbie Ray will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Wilmer Flores’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.2-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 78.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The San Francisco Giants have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Sam Huff, Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Ben Brown’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.8 mph this year (94.7 mph) below where it was last year (96.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Typically, hitters like Justin Turner who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robbie Ray.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The 10% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs makes them the #8 offense in MLB this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 82% ROI)