Live Stream for Yankees vs Angels Game – Monday, May 26, 2025

New York Yankees

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Los Angeles Angels

On May 26, 2025, the Los Angeles Angels will host the New York Yankees at Angel Stadium for the first game of their series. The Angels come into this matchup struggling, currently sitting at 25-27 and having lost their last game 3-0 to the Seattle Mariners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are enjoying a successful season with a 32-20 record, having narrowly edged out the Tampa Bay Rays 5-4 in their last outing.

Jack Kochanowicz is set to take the mound for the Angels, and while he has shown some promise with a 3-5 record this year, his 5.03 ERA and a concerning 5.63 FIP indicate he has been fortunate to avoid further damage. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs. His high walk rate of 11.4% could be problematic against a patient Yankees lineup that leads the league in walks.

On the other side, Ryan Yarbrough will start for the Yankees. He has been solid this season with a 3.38 ERA, but his 3.96 xFIP hints at potential regression. Yarbrough’s ability to keep hitters off balance will be crucial against an Angels offense that ranks 21st overall, despite their impressive 4th place ranking in home runs.

The Yankees’ offense is the best in MLB, ranking 1st in both team home runs and batting average. With their powerful lineup facing a pitcher struggling with control, they are poised to capitalize. The Angels are seen as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, but with their power potential, they still have a chance to surprise. The game total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive fireworks.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  Ryan Yarbrough is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Aaron Judge usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees today owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .334, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .352 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Jack Kochanowicz’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (31.7% compared to 21.5% last season) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jo Adell has big-time HR ability (93rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryan Yarbrough is a pitch-to-contact type (17th percentile K%) — great news for Adell.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.82 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jorbit Vivas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)
  Jorbit Vivas has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)