Live Stream for Phillies vs Padres Game – Sunday, July 13, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 13, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. This game marks the third in a series that has already seen the Padres edge out the Phillies 5-4 in their last contest on July 12, further adding to the competitive atmosphere.

Currently, the Padres sit at 52-43, enjoying an above-average season, while the Phillies are slightly ahead at 54-41, showcasing a solid performance thus far. The projections favor the Phillies, but the Padres have a chance to capitalize on a key matchup today.

Nick Pivetta is slated to take the mound for the Padres, boasting a 9-2 record and a respectable 3.07 ERA this season. His last outing was particularly impressive, as he pitched six innings without allowing an earned run, striking out seven batters. However, his 3.90 xERA suggests he may have been a bit fortunate in his performance. Pivetta’s low walk rate could hinder the high-walk Phillies offense, potentially giving him an edge.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez, the Phillies’ starter, has been nothing short of elite this season, with a 2.59 ERA and a 7-2 record. Sanchez’s ability to induce ground balls (59% GB rate) could neutralize the Padres’ power, as they rank 27th in home runs this season. However, Sanchez’s below-average strikeout projection may limit his effectiveness against a Padres lineup that doesn’t strike out often.

With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets reflect an expectation of a close contest. The Padres’ moneyline is currently at +115, indicating they could be undervalued considering their recent form and Pivetta’s potential to shine against a patient, yet possibly frustrated, Phillies lineup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-135)
  The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+250/-345)
  Elias Diaz has paced 0 stolen bases per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 0th percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the San Diego Padres grades them out as the #27 squad in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 62 games (+16.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 away games (+14.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+16.00 Units / 43% ROI)