Live Stream for Guardians vs Tigers Game – Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

As we look ahead to the second game in this American League Central matchup between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park on July 30, 2024, the stakes are clear for both teams. The Guardians, with a robust 64-42 record, are enjoying a great season and are contenders for the division title. The Tigers, on the other hand, have struggled to a 52-56 record, reflecting a below-average season.

Yesterday, the Guardians prevailed over the Tigers, adding more fuel to their impressive run. The Guardians have benefited greatly from the scorching bat of Jose Ramirez, who has been on fire over the last week, boasting a .320 batting average and a stellar 1.174 OPS with three home runs and five RBIs in that span. Conversely, the Tigers have relied on Colt Keith, who has also been productive, hitting .308 with an .857 OPS over the last seven games.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Joey Wentz, who has been among the worst starting pitchers in MLB, ranked #257 according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Wentz has made 30 appearances out of the bullpen this year with an ERA of 5.73###101, indicating significant struggles. However, his xFIP of 4.21 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and could improve. Wentz’s projections for today are modest, with an average of 4.2 innings pitched and 2.2 earned runs allowed.

Meanwhile, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, the #88 ranked pitcher. Williams has an average ERA of 4.50 this season but a more promising 3.27 FIP, hinting at some bad luck of his own. He’s projected to pitch five innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out five batters.

Offensively, the Guardians hold the edge with their 14th-best ranking compared to Detroit’s #26 rank. The Guardians also lead in power metrics with a middle-of-the-pack 15th rank in home runs, whereas the Tigers rank 18th. Additionally, Cleveland’s offense is more adept at creating scoring opportunities through stolen bases, ranking 8th compared to Detroit’s dismal 26th.

Given the Tigers’ mediocre offense and Wentz’s struggles, Gavin Williams and the Guardians’ superior bullpen—which ranks 2nd best—should have the upper hand in this matchup. Keep an eye on this clash, as it could further extend the Guardians’ dominance in the AL Central.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Gavin Williams has gone to his slider 17.2% less often this year (4.9%) than he did last season (22.1%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Josh Naylor is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Detroit Tigers only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tyler Holton – Over/Under 0.5 Strikeouts (-225/+170)
  Tyler Holton’s fastball spin rate has jumped 104 rpm this year (2270 rpm) over where it was last season (2166 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Zach McKinstry has been unlucky this year, putting up a .234 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .302 — a .068 difference.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Detroit’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the league: #21 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 76 games (+13.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 60 of their last 105 games (+10.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+120/-155)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)