Live Stream for Braves vs Phillies Game – Thursday, August 29, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on August 29, 2024, this National League East matchup is pivotal for both teams, especially with playoff aspirations on the line. The Phillies currently sit at 78-55, enjoying a strong season, while the Braves, at 73-60, are having an above-average year. The stakes are high, as both teams look to gain momentum heading into the postseason.

In their last game, the Phillies faced the Braves, and the Braves managed to secure a notable victory, showcasing their ability to compete closely in this series. For this matchup, Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound for the Phillies, and while he holds a respectable 3.51 ERA, his 5.8% walk rate indicates he’s adept at limiting free passes. Sanchez’s 2.83 FIP suggests he has been slightly unlucky and could be poised for improvement moving forward.

On the other side, Charlie Morton is set to pitch for the Braves. With a 4.24 ERA, Morton has been deemed an average pitcher this season. He faces a Phillies lineup that ranks as the 7th best offense in MLB and excels in batting average, currently sitting at 3rd overall. The projections favor the Phillies to score a healthy 4.95 runs on average, bolstered by their impressive performance in recent weeks.

The Phillies’ bullpen also ranks 9th overall, while the Braves find themselves at 12th, suggesting a potential edge late in the game. With the betting odds favoring the Phillies at -150, there may be value in backing them to continue their strong performance against a solid but vulnerable Braves squad.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  In his last start, Charlie Morton was in good form and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Considering that groundball pitchers have a notable edge over groundball bats, Cristopher Sanchez and his 55.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in this matchup squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Brandon Marsh has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 68 of their last 109 games (+26.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Austin Hays – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Austin Hays has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+12.40 Units / 28% ROI)