Live Stream for Blue Jays vs Astros Game – Monday, April 21, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on April 21, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective seasons. The Astros, currently sitting at 10-11, are struggling to find their footing, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 12-10, showcasing a better performance overall. In their last outing, the Astros managed to secure a win, but they remain below average in offensive production, ranking 24th in MLB.

On the mound, the Astros will send Hunter Brown to the hill. Brown has shown promise this season with a solid 1.50 ERA and a record of 2-1 over four starts. His advanced stats rank him as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is performing well in a challenging year for the team. However, his 3.03 xFIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune thus far. Brown projects to pitch six innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he also has concerning projections of allowing 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks on average.

Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the Blue Jays. With a 2.49 ERA and a similar 2-1 record, Gausman is off to a decent start, but his below-average ranking in the projections raises questions about his consistency. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 3.2 earned runs, which could be a challenge against an Astros offense that has struggled this season.

With the Astros’ bullpen ranked 10th and the Blue Jays’ at 5th, the late innings could be crucial. Given the Astros’ betting favorite status at -140, they might have the edge, but their poor offensive showing could keep the game closer than expected. The low game total of 7.5 runs reflects the anticipated pitching duel, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Kevin Gausman is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Bats such as Anthony Santander with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Brown who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 16.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Hunter Brown has gone to his cutter 11.1% less often this season (5.8%) than he did last season (16.9%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Houston Astros bats collectively place 27th- in MLB for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.35 Units / 35% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)