Athletics
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-105/-115)-250
The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Oakland Athletics on May 15, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium. Coming off a commanding 9-3 victory against the Athletics yesterday, the Dodgers continue to solidify their status as one of the premier teams in the league, boasting a 28-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the Athletics are competing at a more modest pace with a 22-21 record, showing signs of an average season.
The projections favor the Dodgers heavily, particularly with Matt Sauer on the mound. Despite being ranked #235 among MLB starters, he’s delivered a stellar ERA of 1.54 this year, appearing lucky given his higher xFIP of 2.85. Sauer’s last outing on April 29 was impressive, as he held the opposition to just one earned run over five innings. His ability to generate ground balls (58% GB rate) could serve him well against the Athletics’ power-hitting lineup, which ranks #6 in MLB with 57 home runs this season.
Osvaldo Bido takes the hill for the Athletics and, while he’s made eight starts this season, his ERA is a higher 4.75, and his 5.56 xFIP suggests that he might not maintain his current level of performance. Bido’s flyball tendency (45% FB rate) could prove problematic against a Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in MLB with 68 home runs.
With the Dodgers’ lineup leading the way—ranking #2 in offense and holding the best team batting average in the league—Bido may struggle to contain the damage. Current betting lines heavily favor the Dodgers, with their moneyline sitting at -250, indicating a strong expectation of victory. This game, positioned within a compelling series, sees the Dodgers set to further distance themselves in the standings with a win against the capable but inconsistent Athletics.
Athletics Insights
- Osvaldo Bido – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Osvaldo Bido’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (93.5 mph) below where it was last year (94.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jacob Wilson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jacob Wilson has been hot lately, bashing 2 HRs in the last week.Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Brent Rooker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Matt Sauer – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Matt Sauer to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)James Outman is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Sacramento (#1-worst of all teams today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- The underlying talent of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense today (.337 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .349 wOBA this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- Athletics – Moneyline (+210)The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+7.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+6.15 Units / 30% ROI)