Live Stream Details for Reds vs Rays – Sunday, July 28, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays will look to close out their series against the Cincinnati Reds on July 28, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, who hold a 53-52 record, are having an average season, whereas the Reds, with a 50-54 record, are underperforming. In their last encounter on July 27, the Rays secured a 4-0 victory, thanks to a solid performance that included a closing Moneyline price of -130.

On the mound, Tyler Alexander will start for the Rays. Alexander, a lefty, has struggled this year with a 5.88 ERA and a 3-3 record across 12 starts. Despite his #207 ranking among about 350 starting pitchers in MLB advanced-stat Power Rankings, his xFIP of 4.43 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. Alexander’s last outing was a brief but effective one, going 3 innings with no earned runs on July 23.

The Reds will counter with Hunter Greene, a right-handed pitcher who has been more successful this season. Greene holds a 7-4 record with a stellar 3.14 ERA, marking him as the #52 best starting pitcher in the advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his xFIP of 4.18 indicates he might regress. Greene is expected to pitch about 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.8 batters on average. In his last start on July 22, Greene was sharp, going 7 innings without allowing an earned run.

Offensively, the Rays have struggled, ranking 21st in MLB. They have particular issues with power, being 26th in home runs and 23rd in team batting average. However, their speed on the basepaths is a bright spot, as they rank 4th in stolen bases. The Reds’ offense is more balanced, ranking 16th overall and 13th in home runs, but their batting average ranks a lowly 27th. They lead the league in stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees the Rays with a slight edge, projecting their win probability at 52%, against the betting markets’ implied win probability of 49%. While the game is expected to be close, the Rays might just have the upper hand, given Greene’s potential for regression and Alexander’s likelihood for improvement.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Hunter Greene has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 10.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Santiago Espinal has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 16.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 7.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Cincinnati Reds have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their highest exit velocity balls. Their 16.5° mark is among the highest in the league this year (#1 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Isaac Paredes has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.5% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay’s 88-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #27 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 58 of their last 96 games (+16.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+8.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Brandon Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.20 Units / 59% ROI)