Live Stream Details for Marlins vs Phillies – Friday, April 18, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Miami Marlins on April 18, 2025, they come off a victorious performance against Miami the previous day, winning 6-4 in a hard-fought contest. The Phillies stand at 11-8 this season, showcasing a solid start, while the Marlins are struggling with a record of 8-10.

The matchup features two right-handed aces, with the Phillies expected to start Zack Wheeler, ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Wheeler has been somewhat unlucky this season with a 4.07 ERA, but his 3.10 xFIP suggests he’s likely to improve. He projects to throw 6.2 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs and striking out 7.3 batters against a Marlins offense that has struggled to produce power, ranking 27th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Sandy Alcantara is slated to take the mound for Miami. Although he holds a respectable 2-0 record, his 4.70 ERA indicates he has been average this year. The projections suggest Alcantara will pitch around 6.0 innings and could allow 2.7 earned runs, but his high walk rate may be a concern, as he faces a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 3rd in walks drawn.

With Philadelphia’s offense ranking 11th overall, it carries an implied team total of 4.69 runs, making them the betting favorite with a moneyline of -210. Meanwhile, the Marlins are facing an uphill battle with an implied team total of just 3.31 runs. As Wheeler takes the mound against a struggling Miami offense, the Phillies look to capitalize and continue their winning momentum in this critical National League East matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Sandy Alcantara is expected to post an average of 18.1 outs in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Otto Lopez is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have 6 bats in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Wheeler in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Bryce Harper has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-contacted balls. Their 10.7° angle is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (#29 overall).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+7.10 Units / 71% ROI)