Live Stream Details for Dodgers vs Marlins – Monday, May 05, 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 5, 2025, the stakes are high for the struggling Marlins, who currently hold a record of 13-20. They are coming off a narrow loss to the Dodgers, falling 3-2 in their last game on May 4. Meanwhile, the Dodgers boast a strong 23-11 record, putting them in a favorable position as they look to extend their lead in the standings.

The matchup features Sandy Alcantara, projected to start for the Marlins. Despite being ranked as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Alcantara has faced challenges this season, standing at 2-3 with an alarming ERA of 8.31. However, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.71 indicates room for improvement. Alcantara’s high groundball percentage (54%) could work in his favor against the Dodgers’ powerful offense, which has already slugged 54 home runs this season—the 2nd most in MLB.

On the other hand, Ben Casparius will take the mound for the Dodgers. While he has an impressive ERA of 2.91 and a perfect 3-0 record this year, projections indicate that he may have some struggles ahead, particularly with a low strikeout rate. The Marlins offense, which ranks 17th overall, will need to capitalize on any opportunities against Casparius.

The Game Total is set at 9.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of offensive production. With the Marlins listed as significant underdogs at +175, their chances for an upset may hinge on Alcantara’s ability to harness his groundball tendencies to limit the Dodgers’ high-powered lineup.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Ben Casparius – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ben Casparius to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 69 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Hitters such as Max Muncy with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sandy Alcantara who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-225)
  The best projected batting order on the slate in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Jesus Sanchez has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 26 games (+4.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+5.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+135/-175)
  Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.10 Units / 130% ROI)