Atlanta Braves
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-130
The Kansas City Royals and the Atlanta Braves meet for the second game of their interleague series on July 29, 2025, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, currently sitting at 52-55, are having an average season, while the Braves struggle with a 45-60 record, marking a disappointing campaign. In their last matchup, the Braves fell to the Royals, who are looking to build on that momentum.
Projected starters Seth Lugo and Erick Fedde present an intriguing contrast. Lugo, ranked as the 99th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, has a solid 2.95 ERA this season and boasts a 7-5 record across 19 starts. Despite his impressive ERA, his 4.07 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Lugo projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs with 4.7 strikeouts, which could be a cause for concern given his below-average strikeout rate.
On the other side, Fedde has struggled mightily this year, with a 5.22 ERA and a 3-10 record over 20 starts. His performance has been characterized by a high walk rate of 10.5%, making him vulnerable against a Royals offense that ranks 1st in the league for least walks drawn. Fedde’s projections indicate he will also pitch 5.5 innings, but he is expected to allow 3.2 earned runs with only 3.5 strikeouts, further emphasizing his challenges.
The Royals’ offense ranks a disappointing 25th in MLB, while the Braves sit at 20th. With a game total set at a high 9.5 runs, both teams will need to capitalize on their opportunities to secure a win. The Royals hold a slight edge in the betting markets, with a current moneyline of -125, reflecting their status as slight favorites.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Erick Fedde – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde has gone to his secondary offerings 5.7% less often this season (63.2%) than he did last season (68.9%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (+110)The 4th-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Atlanta Braves.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.2 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)When assessing his batting average ability, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 5th-best batter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Kansas City Royals – 2H MoneylineThe Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 104 games (+29.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 77 games (+6.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-130/+100)Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 43% ROI)