Live Stream Details for Astros vs Athletics – Thursday, September 25, 2025

Houston Astros

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Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Houston Astros on September 25, 2025, the stakes are palpable. The Athletics, currently sitting at 75-83, have had a disappointing season, while the Astros are in much better shape at 84-74. This matchup marks the third game of the series, and both teams are looking to solidify their positions as the season winds down.

In their last game, the Athletics fell short against the Astros, who are riding high on their recent success. On the mound, Oakland will send J.T. Ginn, a right-handed pitcher who has had an average season with a 4.57 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for better results, as his 3.41 xFIP indicates some bad luck. Ginn projects to pitch around 5.4 innings while allowing approximately 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.1 hits and 1.5 walks per game could be problematic against a potent lineup.

Framber Valdez, the Astros’ ace and a left-handed pitcher, will be countering Ginn. Valdez has been impressive this season with a 3.75 ERA and ranks as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB. He is projected to pitch 5.7 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, making him a tough opponent for the Athletics.

The Athletics’ offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, particularly with their 216 home runs this season. However, their struggles on the base paths, ranking 26th in stolen bases, could hinder their chances for aggressive play. In contrast, the Astros’ offense has been average, ranking 14th overall, but they have shown the capability to capitalize on mistakes.

With the game total set at a high 9.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, with Oakland’s moneyline at +100 and Houston’s at -120. The Athletics’ high implied total of 4.64 runs suggests they could put up a fight, especially at home. However, Valdez’s ability to induce ground balls against a power-hitting team like the Athletics may give the Astros the edge they need to secure another win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #10 HR venue in the majors — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Jake Meyers has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 82.1-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Due to his large platoon split, J.T. Ginn figures to be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected offense who share his hand in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under Total Bases
  Lawrence Butler has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 72 games (+14.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under Team Total
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 84 of their last 144 games (+16.25 Units / 9% ROI)