Chicago White Sox
Oakland Athletics
(-120/+100)-185
As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on August 7, 2024, both teams are struggling this season, with records of 47-67 and 27-88, respectively. The match-up lacks playoff implications, but the Athletics have shown slight improvement lately, making this game an intriguing contest nonetheless.
In their last game, the Athletics fell to the White Sox, who managed to deliver a much-needed win amid a dismal season. The Athletics will look to rebound behind right-hander Joey Estes, who has started 14 games this year with a 5-4 record and a below-average ERA of 4.77. Although Estes ranks as the 264th best starting pitcher in MLB, he benefits from facing a White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in the league in offense. With a power-hitting Athletics squad that ranks 4th in home runs this season, Estes could thrive against a White Sox team that has struggled to capitalize on flyballs.
On the mound for Chicago is Davis Martin, who has had a rocky start with a 0-1 record and a nightmarish ERA of 7.11 over just one game. His low innings projection of 4.2 suggests he may struggle to keep the Athletics from capitalizing on his mistakes. The projections indicate that both pitchers will focus on limiting walks, but with the Athletics’ strong offense and the White Sox’s weak hitting, this matchup heavily favors Oakland.
While the Athletics’ offense ranks 18th overall, their recent form has shown potential for better performance, highlighted by JJ Bleday’s hot streak over the past week. If the Athletics can continue that momentum, they should be in a strong position to win this matchup at Oakland Coliseum.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)Gavin Sheets’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88.4-mph seasonal average has lowered to 78.2-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Chicago White Sox offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Joey Estes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Joey Estes’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2334 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2393 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)When it comes to his home runs, Lawrence Butler has been lucky this year. His 29.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.8.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Oakland Athletics bats as a group have been among the best in Major League Baseball this year (6th-) when it comes to their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Oakland Athletics – Run Line -1.5 (+100)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+5.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Tyler Nevin – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)Tyler Nevin has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.80 Units / 55% ROI)