Live Score for Marlins vs Braves – April 5th, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins at Truist Park on April 5, 2025, in the second game of their series. The Braves are struggling this season with a record of 1-7, while the Marlins sit at a more average 4-4. In their last game, the Braves managed a dominant 10-0 victory, which marked a much-needed turnaround after a rough start. Conversely, the Marlins suffered the same fate, losing by the same score, raising questions about their consistency.

On the mound, the Braves will send out AJ Smith-Shawver, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled early in the season with a 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA. Despite his low ranking as the 239th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he might perform better than his current stats indicate, thanks to a favorable 3.91 xFIP. He is expected to pitch about 5.0 innings while allowing around 2.2 earned runs, which could bode well against a Marlins offense that ranks 39th in the league.

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Marlins, also a righty, who has had a disastrous start with a 0-1 record and an alarming 13.50 ERA. His projections are similarly grim, projecting him to yield 3.3 earned runs over 5.1 innings pitched. The Braves’ high-strikeout offense, ranked 4th in MLB, could exploit Quantrill’s weaknesses, as he has a low strikeout rate.

Despite their overall struggles, the Braves are favored with a moneyline of -250, reflecting a solid implied team total of 5.18 runs for this matchup. The Marlins, on the other hand, face tougher odds with a +215 line, suggesting a projected total of just 3.32 runs. As the Braves look to build on their recent success, they will aim to capitalize on the Marlins’ pitching woes.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Cal Quantrill has used his off-speed and breaking balls 18% more often this year (77.8%) than he did last year (59.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Hitters such as Derek Hill with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Stowers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-235)
  AJ Smith-Shawver was rolling in his last GS and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the unluckiest offense in the game since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 97 of their last 158 games (+35.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+16.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Austin Riley has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)