Learn How to Watch the Rays vs Yankees Game – July 21, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays clash on July 21, 2024, in the third game of their series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, boasting a 59-41 record, have had a stellar season and currently sit as one of the American League East’s powerhouses. Meanwhile, the Rays find themselves in the middle of the pack with a 49-49 record, struggling for consistency. Yesterday’s game saw a surprising result, with the Rays demolishing the Yankees 9-1, despite being the underdogs.

Marcus Stroman will take the mound for the Yankees. With a 7-4 record and a respectable 3.51 ERA, Stroman has been fairly solid this year, though his 4.78 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. His high-groundball rate could neutralize the Rays’ lack of power, as Tampa Bay ranks 26th in home runs this season. Stroman’s projections indicate an average outing: 5.7 innings, 2.7 earned runs, and 4.6 strikeouts.

The Rays counter with Shane Baz, who has had a rough start to his season with a 5.23 ERA over two starts. However, Baz’s 3.77 xFIP implies he has been a bit unlucky and may show improvement. Baz will have his work cut out for him against a Yankees offense that ranks 4th overall and 2nd in home runs. His flyball tendencies could be problematic against New York’s power hitters.

Offensively, the Yankees are led by Aaron Judge, who has been phenomenal this season with a .307 batting average and 34 home runs. The Yankees’ offense is potent, but they rank 29th in stolen bases, opting to rely on their power. In contrast, the Rays’ offense has struggled, ranking 21st overall and 20th in team batting average, although their 5th place ranking in stolen bases shows a different facet to their game.

Power Rankings place the Yankees bullpen at 20th, which is a downgrade from their year-to-date performance. Meanwhile, the Rays’ bullpen is ranked 10th, indicating they might have the edge in late-inning situations.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Yankees a 62% chance to win, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 57%. With their potent lineup and Stroman’s ability to generate groundballs, the Yankees seem primed to rebound from yesterday’s defeat and secure a series victory.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jose Siri has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (33.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Marcus Stroman struggles to strike batters out (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Siri.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Marcus Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.2% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Juan Soto has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.9-mph to 99.4-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 10.4% Barrel% of the New York Yankees ranks them as the #1 team in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 76 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+17.20 Units / 18% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)