Learn How to Watch the Phillies vs Dodgers Game – August 06, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies face off again on August 6, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, both teams are in a tight race in the National League. The Dodgers currently sit with a record of 66-47, while the Phillies boast a slightly better 66-46. The Dodgers emerged victorious in their last encounter just yesterday, winning 5-3, which adds a layer of intensity to this matchup as both teams aim to secure crucial wins.

Clayton Kershaw is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite his struggles this season, holding a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.87. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, with a lower xFIP of 4.93. On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez will start for the Phillies, coming off a rough outing where he allowed 6 earned runs over 6 innings. Sanchez has had a solid season overall with a 3.36 ERA and has started 21 games.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank as the 4th best in MLB, showcasing their power with 139 home runs this season. This contrasts with Sanchez’s high groundball rate of 59%, which could neutralize the Dodgers’ ability to capitalize on their power. The projections indicate that the Dodgers should score around 4.92 runs, further emphasizing their strong offensive capabilities.

Interestingly, betting markets currently set the moneyline for both teams at -110, implying a close contest. Yet, the leading MLB projection system suggests that the Dodgers may have an edge, projecting a higher win probability than what the odds reflect. This discrepancy indicates potential value for bettors favoring the Dodgers in this pivotal matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Cristopher Sanchez is an extreme groundball pitcher (54.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #2 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Trea Turner has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 10th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Clayton Kershaw – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Clayton Kershaw has utilized his change-up 5.8% more often this year (7.8%) than he did last year (2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kevin Kiermaier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Kevin Kiermaier are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games at home (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1300/-10000)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games (+15.60 Units / 87% ROI)