Learn How to Watch the Orioles vs Nationals Game – April 24, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on April 24, 2025, they’ll do so with momentum from their narrow 4-3 victory over the Orioles just a day prior. This matchup in an Interleague series features two teams struggling below .500—Washington at 11-13 and Baltimore at 9-14. Both teams have shown flashes of offensive power, but their overall performance has been underwhelming.

On the mound, the Nationals are set to start MacKenzie Gore, who has been solid this season, boasting a 2-2 record and a stellar 3.41 ERA. Despite a projected average of 5.5 innings pitched today, Gore’s ability to strike out batters has been impressive, averaging 6.7 strikeouts across his starts. His low walk rate (6.7 BB%) pairs interestingly against a Baltimore lineup known for avoiding walks, which may allow Gore to exploit their impatience at the plate.

Conversely, Cade Povich will take the hill for the Orioles. His 6.38 ERA and 0-2 record highlight ongoing struggles, particularly after a disastrous outing on April 18, where he allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. Projections suggest he might allow 2.8 earned runs today, indicating he could continue to struggle against a Nationals lineup ranked 20th overall in offensive production.

Betting markets seem to reflect that the Nationals are slight favorites with a moneyline of -125, hinting at a closely contested matchup. The game’s total is set at 8.5 runs, further illustrating a predicted battle for runs.

Ultimately, though both teams are still finding their rhythm, the Nationals may hold an edge with Gore on the mound, especially with his current form and the opportunity to capitalize on Povich’s struggles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  Cade Povich’s fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (91.5 mph) below where it was last year (92.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order profiles as the strongest on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+140)
  Compared to the average hurler, MacKenzie Gore has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 9.3 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  James Wood has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.3-mph average to last year’s 96.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen profiles as the worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 76% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+23.10 Units / 231% ROI)